Industry Expert Predictions For 2023

Experts from the housebuilding industry share their thoughts about last year, and look ahead to 2023 and share their predictions…

Chris Heath, managing director of Manchester-based Cube Homes, says: “I think we could see house prices drop by as much as 10% from the peak last summer, whether that all happens in 2023 or over the course of the next two years I am not sure yet. However, what I don’t see is a drastic collapse of the property market, I think it’s more likely to be more of a gradual dip. Despite mortgage rate rises and the cost of living crisis, people will always need to move home at key times in their life - when they get married, have kids, get divorced or buy their first property.

“For Cube Homes it will be business as usual in 2023, we will continue to buy new sites but we will be cautious and focus on the really desirable areas where people want to live, now is not the best time to take a chance on an ‘up and coming’ area. We have a number of new sites coming online in 2023 so we will be working hard, laying the groundwork over the next year in preparation for the first properties going on sale in 2024 when hopefully the market should be in a better position.”

Phillip Hulme, sales director at Anchor, says: “Current economic uncertainty and the rising cost of living are underpinning a rise in enquiries about downsizing and we expect to see that trend build in 2023 as home owners continue to feel the pinch. Potential buyers may be thinking about leaving homes which are becoming internally unsuitable and disconnected from amenities, public transport and social infrastructure, factors which grow in importance as people age. As ever, it’s important to consider downsizing as ‘rightsizing’, finding the right sized property which fits both physical and financial needs. I think this will become increasingly true as people may plan to make a move earlier than expected due to economic pressures.”

“There is a considerable undersupply of suitable homes for older people. With an ageing population, that gap will only widen and the Mayhew Review’s call to build 50,000 homes for older people on an annual basis highlights the extent of the problem. I very much hope 2023 will be the year that the barriers preventing that big increase in supply are addressed by the government as this will also relieve pressure on the whole housing system.”

Rachel Lindop, head of sales at Dandara Northern Home Counties, comments: “The 2022 property market is the best I have witnessed in my fifteen years in the industry. It was interesting to see how buyers’ priorities shifted when looking for a new home in the past year – the priority has been community and outdoor space, which our developments are designed to utilise, as well as energy efficiency and versatile indoor space. Buyers have also been noticeably more informed, not only about the area they are looking to move to but also what they need to look for to keep their bills down – whether this is the type of boiler or EPC rating, buyers have definitely been more aware as a result of the energy crisis.

“In the past few months in particular, the headlines have been predominantly ‘doom and gloom’ , however from what we’ve witnessed the market is still strong – our enquiries have stayed consistent across our developments in Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire, we have sold out at the majority of our developments; it shows that if you have quality homes in prime locations, there are people who are still willing to move – we now only have a few homes remaining at our The Oaks developments in Bedfordshire and our The Grove development in Buckinghamshire for example, which have been hotspots for downsizers and young professionals alike.

“We’ve seen a significant increase in sales from the more up market buyer with extra disposable income using schemes like Assisted Move in order to help them sell their existing properties quicker – a scheme which has probably been utilised more in the last three months than in the last couple of years! I think this has largely been driven by the recent political and economic uncertainty - buyers will prioritise a more secure purchase in difficult times when they can, whether this is through guaranteeing the sale of their old house or the purchase of their new one through schemes such as Assisted Move, or even buying off-plan for example.

“As we head into 2023, the biggest challenge currently facing the property sector is undoubtedly the cost of living crisis and current inflation rates, which we’ve already seen is hitting the first-time buyer and investor market the hardest. I think this will remain hit and miss until interest rates begin to stabilise, and people feel comfortable that they have survived a winter with increased bills. Once buyers feel more confident that they can afford these rises, which government policy plays a huge part in, this will definitely help drive the market forward.”

View developments currently available from Dandara

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