2022 Review And Expert Predictions For The Year Ahead
After a rollercoaster of a year, experts from the housebuilding industry share their thoughts and predictions for the upcoming year…
Guy Burnett, executive director of development at SO Resi: “2022 has not been without its challenges to say the least. Where the private market has faltered, affordable schemes such as shared ownership have consistently demonstrated success in helping first-time buyers get onto the property ladder, enabling those with reduced earning power or limited savings to purchase a home. Help to Buy has come to an end which means that naturally we will see increased interest for other low deposit schemes such as Shared Ownership, and our records can consistently demonstrate this demand has increased since October this year.
“Deposit Unlock and other similar initiatives are still yet to have their big break, and I doubt they will ever gain the momentum that Help to Buy has seen. For many first-time buyers, Shared Ownership is the only true solution to the affordability crisis, offering a genuinely affordable route to homeownership in places people actually want to live in. This year has also welcomed an overhaul of the Shared Ownership scheme to make it even more accessible for first-time buyers. This includes the introduction of a 10% minimum share, a 1% staircasing model (something that SO Resi was already doing), plus crucially introducing a 10 year repair warranty, ensuring that homeownership is affordable long after keys are in hands.”
“It’s generally accepted that house prices will fall in 2023 but it serves well to remember that lower house prices do not necessarily make homeownership more affordable for first-time buyers. As it becomes a less desirable sales market, less properties will become available to purchase, again this will send people in the direction of affordable schemes. Equally, many people will put off their home purchase for six months or more and try to ride out the uncertain market conditions.
“As the mortgage sector settles, we’ll expect to see the wider market start to come back to life in summer 2023, though I am confident that rates will not reach the historic lows that we have seen in recent years. With the race for space well and truly over, the apartment market is not expected to take the same hit, as buyers look for smaller homes that are well connected, more affordable, and cheaper to run. Against all odds, I believe that 2023 will be the year of the first-time buyer, and Shared Ownership will continue to hold a major stake in making this possible.”
Lynda Clark, CEO of First Time Buyer Group: “2022 has certainly left first-time buyers’ pockets lighter, for better or for worse, as this year has seen mortgage interest rates rise, the cost of living increase, but also the conclusion of Help to Buy, which has had a monumental impact that this scheme on helping to bring homeownership within reach of first-time buyers. While the fault lines of the cost of living crisis will run into the next year, developers and buyers alike who keep a steady hand in 2023 will find that there are still opportunities available for those who are willing to take the leap. Homeownership is still a fundamental right and aspiration for young people across this country, and I remain confident that the best time to buy is only when you can afford to. As we look to the year ahead, I would remind first-time buyers that there are still many options available to help them, including Shared Ownership, which provides a low-cost route to homeownership. Newer schemes include Deposit Unlock and the First Homes scheme, and the Stamp Duty cut which will remain in place for the next two years, which will see first-time buyers pay no Stamp Duty on the first £425,000 on the value of their home.”
Simon Cox, founder and managing director of land agent Walter Cooper: “With the cost-of-living crisis and recession continuing to take its toll, affordability will be key in 2023. House prices are expected to decrease and what for many years has been considered a sellers’ market may take a turn, with offers below the asking price already starting to be accepted as many buyers attempt to tackle increasing mortgage rates. I expect 2023 will see the return of a more balanced market as housing stock and sales numbers decrease back to pre-pandemic levels.
"However, while overall supply numbers are set to decrease, I expect the demand for new build homes is likely to continue. Larger housebuilders in particular find themselves in a more stable financial position than the previous recession, as a result of the booming market over the last few years. Given this, I expect to see a continued demand in the land market from those companies looking to take advantage of the falling price of land. This is likely to have an impact on the wider industry, as SME housebuilders, who will be more affected by rising material costs, struggle to keep up with the competition allowing the top PLCs to take monopoly of the new build market.”
Search for your new build home