Property predictions– what the industry thinks will happen in 2017 (part 2)

Today, we continue our exclusive series looking at the predictions from some of the top professionals from the property industry, and their thoughts about where it will go in the next 12 months.

Simon Tollit, director of Central London sales at United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty: “The biggest talking point in 2017 is undoubtedly going to be stamp duty, followed closely by further uncertainty surrounding Brexit. There have been an increasing number of campaigns launched recently in favour of slashing stamp duty and this is fully expected to continue into 2017, until the policy is addressed. Since the additional 3% tax was introduced in April, it has had a huge impact on the market as a whole, particularly in prime central London where prices are already high and many Londoners are prohibited from buying a second home. If small changes were to be made to the banding, the market would receive a much needed boost. What’s more, there should be further banding from the £1.5m threshold upwards, allowing the levy to be decreased in the lower price brackets. Brexit will also continue to be widely talked about across the sector moving in to the New Year with ongoing uncertainty around how the market will react to the possible activation of Article 50 next year. What we do know is that uncertainty among buyers undoubtedly slows the market and prices become flat. However, we can be comforted in the knowledge that the UK property market is resilient and can bounce back from any period of insecurity, with London continuing to provide a safe haven for property investment.”

Dave Sheridan, chief executive officer, Keepmoat: “2017’s new homes must be built for mixed tenure, for private sale AND rent, alongside an increase of local authority housing. With such an articulated interest in new build, there must be an equally large focus on large-scale regeneration projects, which in turn will see improvements to existing homes and infrastructure; maximising the volume of housing available and making housing targets significantly more achievable. The key to this wide approach to building new and regenerating existing housing is having productivity at the forefront, which the Chancellor rightly identified as a major factor in building more homes in his recent Autumn Statement.”

Robert Fraser, managing director of Fraser & Co: “As the Crossrail project heads towards completion, house prices along the new Elizabeth Line continue to accelerate, with homes situated on the route seeing around 16% higher prices than the Greater London average. In particular, we are expecting areas such as West Drayton and Slough to be popular with buyers in 2017; both are among the top stations to benefit from the new rail service between now and 2020, with house prices expected to rise by around 50%. We will continue to see strong international investment across the capital in 2017 with outer boroughs especially set to experience considerable growth.”

Marc Langdon, partner at Bidwells: “The more ‘swashbuckling’ types in the world are taking advantage of low interest rates, deals from housebuilders and less competition on those family homes close to the best schools, not forgetting Help to Buy, now a stalwart of the new homes market and one which needs to remain, so as to allow people the opportunity to climb the housing ladder. Realising this short-term shift is key to making a success of the first months of 2017. The first time buyer and the unencumbered purchaser are ‘king’ in the first quarter of 2017. The battle between soft and hard Brexit undoubtedly will have an impact on our ability to make the most of any ‘spring bounce’. Once again, we will not hit our housebuilding target, with the gap growing rather than shortening, the old supply-and-demand rule of economics will shield the wider market from house price reductions, and transaction levels are unlikely to increase in 2017.”

​Founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, Russell Quirk: “Successive governments have failed to deliver adequate housing numbers since the 1980s and there is even less likelihood currently of them facilitating the additional 100,000 that country needs each year. We need more affordable homes in particular but always a good mix otherwise of family houses. The problem is, most affordable housing is linked by S106 agreements to new builds from developers and so if construction is low overall as it is, that means lower rates of affordable and social housing build also. The approach to promoting more social and affordable housing needs a drastic re-think. The North needs more transformational new age commerce in order to attract workers from the South and therefore housing demand.”

Knight Frank UK Residential Forecast: “Looking into next year we believe that the slowdown in prices which has been evident in central London over the past 12-months will spread to the wider region, with Greater London prices down marginally in 2017. This slowdown in the capital will likely be experienced across the rest of the country with price growth down notably on 2016 levels. The main drivers for weaker market performance relate to economic uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, which we believe will impact negatively on consumer confidence in the run up to and just after the serving of the formal “notice to quit” the EU. In addition the impact of reforms to the taxation of landlords will reduce demand from investors which will limit upwards pressure on prices. Looking at the prime London market, we believe that a 7% fall in prices across the western part of central London in 2016 means that we are close to the bottom in terms of price adjustment in this market. Although there could be some further adjustment downwards in prime outer London markets through 2017.”

Richard Conroy, CEO Conroy Brook: “Although there is the possibility of a slight slowing down in the property market in 2017 - Brexit related issues could have a part to play - we are still confident at Conroy Brook that customers will continue to want what we supply, which is quality family homes in fantastic suburban and village locations. There is such a shortage of this kind of property that we feel demand can only increase. We have listened to the market and we are building houses that make maximum use of family living space, with the push towards open plan living still a priority with the majority of our clients. We have some exciting Yorkshire projects coming up over the next few months in some stunning locations - everywhere from South to North Yorkshire - and we know interest is going to be high. The other great priority, of course, is connectivity. You’d be surprised how many people ask about broadband connections before they even ask about things like kitchen and bathroom design. That’s why the government has to deliver its promises on connectivity - it’s what people both want and need if they are going to make the most of 21st-century living.”

Catch up with all the 2017 prediction articles here:

Predictions Part 1

Predictions Part 3

Predictions Part 4

Predictions Part 5