We take a final look at some of the predictions and forecasts of some of the UK property industry’s leading professionals about the way the housing market will go in 2017.
Talitha Murphy, head of residential conveyancing at Vincents Solicitors: “Although there are government schemes to support purchasers, they are not really that widely understood outside the industry. After the initial fanfare, there has been very little national promotion of the Help to Buy scheme outside of the individual housebuilders own marketing materials. Most people assume it’s only for first-time buyers, but it’s actually accessible to anyone purchasing a new build property as their only residence, and it’s helped many thousands of people finally be able to invest in a home of their own. Recent news stories about the end of the government’s backing for the mortgage guarantee scheme has also led to people assuming Help to Buy is over at the end of this year, but it’s simply not the case as the equity loan and Help to Buy ISAs are still going strong and will be for a number of years. I’d certainly like to see Help to Buy extended and better publicised.”
James Mackenzie, head of Strutt & Parkers national country house department: “2017 for the prime country market is looking positive; people now realise the geo-political events which can affect the economy are the ‘new normal’. From stamp duty to the election, one after the other, people are becoming more immune to these seemingly volatile market events. We are telling everyone to get their houses on early before March, when Article 50 is triggered. For this reason, we are expected a busy first quarter. Europe’s explosive politics and Trump’s election and inadvertently highlighted the country market here to be a bit of safe heaven. Will more international buyers come to our market next year? Yes, I think so. Already we are seeing lots of requests from Turkish buyers, Americans, Asians, Chinese, just in the past few weeks; they are not requesting any particular type of house in any set location, but I do think this is an indicative trend for the year ahead. Although we have been showing a few Russians round some of our most expensive houses priced above £10m, this is still a modest level of interest than in previous years. On a whole, I predict the market will remain dominated by expats.
Christine Shea, regional sales director at L&Q: “With the anticipated arrival of Crossrail, areas like Erith in Bexley are becoming increasingly popular with commuters looking to make the most of suburban living while still being within quick and easy reach of central London. Erith, provides a cost effective, and well-connected option for those homebuyers priced out of central London as well as a rich local history, even homing the longest pier in London! We will be bringing around 600 new homes and a state of the art primary school to the area with the launch of The Quarry this coming spring. The Quarry will offer first time buyers and families the chance to enjoy a lifestyle which maximises outdoor space and countryside living at an affordable price while still being able to get to Cannon Street in 35 minutes.”
Daniel Kershaw, director at Russell Homes: “Currently we build family homes that meet the requirements of buyers, gauged by direct feedback and market research. We find that traditional houses are still preferred above all and we focus on quality design and construction to set us apart from the competition. While the general reduction in family size might lead you to think properties should be getting smaller, the aspiration for large ‘forever’ homes regardless of how many people live there, is still an ambition shared by many. Over time we believe there will be a greater shift towards home working which, coupled with technological advancements that support ‘smart’ homes, towns and cities, this will influence the type of homes we build for the future. To ensure our responsiveness to changing demand we will keep listening to buyers, staff and commentators to grasp opportunities at the earliest chance, and continue to challenge our consultants to share their ideas with us.
Jonathan Stephens, managing director of property consultancy Surrenden Invest: “My prediction for 2017 is that we will see more of the same as enthusiasm continues to build around the Northern Powerhouse. I expect more and more investors will turn to Birmingham and Manchester, putting even greater pressure on housing stock. The trick will be to buy in the best areas where demand is at its highest. For both cities that is towards the city centre, especially properties sporting B1, B2 and B3 postcodes for Birmingham and M1, M2 and M3 postcodes for Manchester. I also see the London market turning a corner in 2017. As new build stock continues to be heavily discounted across the capital, I believe investors will start to see London as good value again. In short, buy-to-let investors have never had it so good with 3 major cities offering opportunities to choose from now. With Article 50 set to be triggered next spring, bricks and mortar is the safest option, both short and long term, for investors.”
Kush Rawal, sales and marketing director, Thames Valley Housing: “There are a range of excellent schemes at different price points and affordability. Help to Buy is assisting those who have sufficient income but are constrained by the deposit; Shared Ownership is helping people at a range of levels, from the first time buyer entry point onwards. There is more than enough opportunity available. Rather than add another product, which risks confusing consumers, we should stick with the existing schemes, invest in them more and focus on promoting them.”
Sara Ransom of Stacks Property Search: “Trump’s victory will be a win for London property. European investors anticipate further turbulence in the forthcoming Italian, French and German elections, and Americans are nervous. London will be viewed by Americans and Europeans alike as a safe option – with the added advantage of recent price drops of as much as 20% which make central London look like good value.”
Jake Russell, director at central London estate agent Russell Simpson: “Areas to prosper in 2017 will be landmark developments with unique USPs – exceptional views, riverside location, place-making components etc. Therefore, projects such as Battersea Power Station, One Blackfriars and Southbank Place will – we believe – be incredibly popular, as investors look to put their money in a long-term project with strong growth potential, whilst the UK aligns itself and finds its new position in the world post-Brexit. Stamp duty and price difference will also play a role throughout the year, if SDLT rates remain the same then we’ll continue to see a lot of activity in the sub-£5m market, whilst conditions at the super-prime end of the scale will remain a challenge. Areas such as Battersea will continue to draw in buyers, whilst prices remain attractive compared to prime central London – on average property prices are 32% lower than Chelsea, despite being just a short walk over the bridge and on the cusp of becoming London’s newest destination.”
Marc Langdon, partner at Bidwells: “As the impact of the tax changes began to subside, Cameron and Osborne’s gamble didn’t pay off, thus leading to a lost summer and a considerable drop in transactions, particularly in central London and other markets throughout the UK. Only a change in stamp duty in the spring Budget 2017 will help these markets, a change which failed to materialise in the Autumn Statement, but one which should be considered if transaction levels in the middle price bracket of the market fail to pick up.”
Helen Hick, joint managing director of Larkfleet Homes: “The government has clearly recognised the importance of delivering affordable housing. We await the long-promised White Paper which will hopefully allow more flexibility in delivery, including the starter unit initiative, and support private rented housing alongside traditional affordable rent and Shared Ownership tenures. This will help to address the housing supply issue that will then have an impact on the market overall. For individual housebuilders the keys to success in 2017 will be the same as they were in 2016 – protecting quality at a time of skilled labour shortages, a relentless focus on customer care and, of course, building the right homes in the right locations to meet customer needs.”
Catch up with all the last few days' 2017 prediction articles here:
Predictions Part 1
Predictions Part 2
Predictions Part 3
Predictions Part 4